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Thursday, August 8, 2013

Scenario Planning - the buzz

From the reading of academic literature and the viewing of signposts and videos I understand that Scenario Planning is not based on a mere prediction of the future. It is a deeper and more inclusive, strategic and more analytical method of planning that an organization undertakes in it's pursuance of success in the future.

It is driven by a comprehensive analysis and minute study of past trends and how they were responsible for the contemporary state of things. With these perspectives in mind, preparations are made for future uncertainties by moving over and beyond the obvious probabilities.

Scenario Planning is adept decision-making in the face of uncertainty, considering alternative futures and taking into consideration the lurking improbabilities and unpredictable changes that might drastically transform the present into something that most expert planners would not perceive. It is a compilation of credible stories about plausible futures which can be taken into account by organizations to develop their strategic planning.
In simple words, Scenario Planning is like a very engaging movie with alternative endings which can be changed to suit the situation.

In Scenario Planning, one should take into consideration the unpredictability of growth and development, the fluid morphing and dynamic transformation of the present situation into something that includes sudden and imperceptible changes in the future.  One has to take into consideration the driving forces or drivers that gave rise to radical changes in the past and then prepare for any uncertainties that would and may eclipse the predictables of the future. 

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